Everything you depend on has a shelf life.

Historical base rates for the things that hold your life together. Not opinion. Not news. Just the math of how long things last.

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The Numbers Nobody Tells You

Permanence is eroding. Compare then vs. now.

S&P 500 median lifespan today 18 years S&P 500 median lifespan in 1965 61 years

Median tech career before pivot 8 years Median career before pivot in 1990 14 years

Alliances surviving 30+ years 23% Alliances surviving 30+ years in 1900 48%

Median small business survival 8.5 years Median small business survival in 1980 12 years

Digital platform median relevance 5 years Digital platform median relevance (none) —

Base Rates, Not Guesses

1 1. Name it

Describe the thing you depend on. A job type, industry, institution, technology, alliance, or relationship structure.

2 2. We find the base rate

Matched against 200+ historical datasets from actuarial tables, Bureau of Labor Statistics, academic research on institutional longevity, alliance survival studies, and industry lifecycle data.

3 3. See your position

Where you are in the typical lifecycle, not just how long things last on average.

4 4. Calibrate your bets

Make decisions with the math, not against it. The number reframes without telling you what to do.

We don't predict the future. We show you how long similar things have lasted. Base rates are starting points, not crystal balls.

Track What Holds Your Life Together

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Stop Guessing. Start Calibrating.

The question isn't whether things will change. It's whether you'll see it coming in time.

Shelf Life gives you the numbers to make better bets — on careers, companies, commitments. No opinions. No panic. Just the actuarial math that insurance companies use, productized for your life.

Bookmarked by 12,400+ people making smarter commitments.

✓ Peer-reviewed base rate sources
✓ Updated quarterly with new research
✓ Works in English, Russian, Spanish, Chinese